A Russian national anti-terrorism committee said that in the early morning of October 8, a truck bomb blew up at the Crimea Bridge, setting fire to seven oil tankers. At the same time, two spans of the bridge's highway bridge partially collapsed. Video footages show that the bombed-out bridge in Crimea has fallen into the sea. In addition, the explosion of the railway oil tank train started the fire, which might have caused some damage to the bridge that could take a long time to repair.
The Crimea Bridge is the longest bridge in Russia with a total length of 19 kilometers. After the Kremlin annexed Crimea in 2014, Russia began to build the Crimea Bridge, spanning the Kerch Strait and connecting the Crimean Peninsula to the Russian mainland. The bridge was commissioned in May 2018. In December 2019, the first train passed the railway bridge. The bridge is the lifeline of Crimea, which has extremely important geopolitical significance and strategic value after the annexation.
It is likely that Ukraine is responsible for the explosion. Mykhailo Podolyak, an advisor to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, tweeted that "Crimea, the bridge, has begun. Everything illegal should be destroyed, everything stolen must be returned to Ukraine, everything occupied by Russia All should be destroyed”. Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti sees that this was the admission by the advisor that Ukraine was responsible for the attack on the Crimea Bridge. Some Ukrainian media quoted anonymous sources as saying that the bombing of the Crimea Bridge was a special operation of the National Security and Defense Council. However, the council has not issued any statement on this.
From a technical point of view, this operation was planned very delicately with precise timing. The explosion occurred at the time when the carriages and the explosive truck met. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, compared to the inland battlefield situation, the Crimea Bridge in the rear did not face a lot of threats. Due to the lack of long-range weapons capable of hitting the Crimea Bridge in Ukraine, the range of the M142 HIMARS rocket launcher and the Soviet-made Tactical Operational Missile Complex "Tochka" fall within the 100-kilometer range. The range of the Ukrainian-made Grom-2 (Thunder-2) ballistic missile is also only 200 kilometers. Therefore, the threat from Ukraine to attack the bridge was not taken seriously. However, Ukraine does not seem to be limited by such restrictions and has adopted the most traditional and efficient special methods to achieve a very successful operation by exploding a large truck and setting off fuel carriages.
While Russia imposed strict protection on the Crimea Bridge, Ukraine was still able to blow up some of the bridges. This has certainly shocked the Kremlin. Ukrainian special forces have previously successfully attacked the Crimea airport, forcing the Russian military plane to be moved inland, and now they successfully carried out the bridge bombing. With the Russian army suffering consecutive defeats on the battlefields of eastern and southern Ukraine, this undoubtedly worsened the morale of the Russian army, while boosting the spirit of the Ukrainians.
The attack shocked Crimea. Immediately after the explosion, Russian Railways said that all trains scheduled to depart for Crimea in the near future would be suspended. Authorities in Crimea announced that local stocks of basic necessities are sufficient for two months, but grocery sales will be limited to avoid panic buying. Russia's Energy Ministry said on October 8 that Crimea had sufficient fuel supplies for vehicles to last 15 days. If Ukraine maintains the ability to attack the Crimea bridge, then Crimea's ties with Russia will be effectively cut off and become like a peninsula suspended in the Black Sea. Its support for the northern state of Kherson will be significantly weakened, which will undoubtedly be extremely unfavorable for the Russian army's war effort.
The Crimea Bridge bombing is undoubtedly an aggressive operation by the Ukrainian army, and now the world anxiously awaits responses from Russia. Will it stimulate Russia to use nuclear weapons in Ukraine, as is currently being discussed internationally?
The Ukrainian side has repeatedly threatened to attack the vital bridge. Russian officials have also repeatedly stated that the Crimea Bridge is a red line of the highest level and must not be crossed. Russian Presidential Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov said that the attack was tantamount to announcing an imminent terrorist attack. Military figures in Moscow have threatened to bomb Kyiv when the Crimean Bridge is attacked. Security Council Deputy Chairman Dmitry Medvedev said ahead of Monday's meeting that Russia should kill the "terrorists" responsible for the attack.
So far, Russia's strong response has been rhetorical. On October 8, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered the establishment of a government committee for emergencies regarding the Crimea Bridge explosion. "There is an undisguised terrorist war against us," said Oleg Morozov, deputy to the Russian State Duma. Leonid Slutsky, head of the foreign affairs committee in the lower house of the Russian parliament, said “consequences will be imminent” if Ukraine is responsible.
Researchers at ANBOUND believe that while the bridge explosion is unlikely to trigger Russia's use of nuclear weapons, it is possible to stimulate Russia to retaliate in some way. The war in Ukraine has been fought for more than 7 months, and with the all-rounded sanctions against Russia and military assistance to Ukraine by the West, Russia's national economic and military strength has been vastly reduced, where the effect of "denationization" has been increasing. In the past two months, there have been repeated losses on the battlefields in eastern and southern Ukraine on the Russian side. With Russia being deeply engulfed in this quagmire, Putin is now facing a desperate situation. The successive defeats on the battlefield led to low morale in the Russian army. Russian military leaders said that the Russian army is currently not fighting against Ukraine, but with NATO, especially in terms of intelligence. NATO satellites have almost mastered the position of every Russian tank and artillery, resulting in the Russian army being almost impossible to win the war.
Looking at the situation, the Russian forces’ defeat on the Ukrainian battlefield is close to a systemic collapse. If the West maintains the weapon aid, intelligence support, and training assistance for Ukraine, and the Ukrainians maintain their current combating will, it will be difficult for Russia to turn the table within the framework of conventional warfare. If Russia determines that Ukraine is responsible for the explosion of the Crimea Bridge, it may take some drastic retaliatory action, such as sending planes or missiles to strike Kyiv, the capital of Ukraine, or some important political targets. That said, it may be difficult for Russia to reverse the current passive war.
Could this lead to a nuclear war? While it is indeed logically possible, it remains extremely unlikely. This will be a completely different issue.
Final analysis conclusion:
The bombing of the Crimea Bridge further raises the risk of an escalation of the war in Ukraine, with Russia imposing some kind of retaliation. Even so, it would be difficult for Russia to reverse the current passive war situation within the framework of conventional warfare.
